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TX GOP 12/12 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Thursday, 13 December 2007 08:51
Whether caused by questions about Rudy Giuliani's expenses as Mayor or Mike Huckabee having a good debate and striking gold with the Redeem the Vote email list, things are changing fast in the GOP presidential primary. Huckabee shot up to 29%, matching Fred Thompson's high point from June, while Thompson has fallen to half his previous support. Last month, the two were tied for second. Guiliani has the largest drop and falls to a statistical three-way tie with Romney and Thompson, though he still maintains a slight lead. The issue questions from last month were repeated and comparing the two sets, it would appear that some of Giuliani's more moderate voters have shifted to Huckabee. The profile of Giuliani's supporters is more conservative this month, while the profile of Huckabee's supporters is more moderate than last month, which is in line with moderates shifting support.

  • Huckabee 29% (16%)
  • Giuliani 16% (23%)
  • Thompson 14% (16%)
  • Romney 14% (12%)
  • McCain 7% (9%)
  • Paul 6% (5%)
  • Tancredo 3% (3%)
  • Hunter 2% (3%)
  • Keyes 0% (1%)
  • Undecided 9% (11%)
535 past TX GOP Primary voters polled 12/12, MoE 4.2%

Graph after break
Last Updated on Friday, 11 January 2008 12:02
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TX Dems 12/11 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Wednesday, 12 December 2007 10:05
Things may be moving around in the early states, but not in Texas. Almost no movement this month, though Edwards improves a bit at the expense of Richardson and Undecided. Not much to say beyond that, except that there is a pretty good chance that things will probably look very different next month if Clinton doesn't do well in Iowa.

  • Clinton 51%
  • Obama 17%
  • Edwards 15%
  • Richardson 8%
  • Kucinich 1%
  • Biden 1%
  • Dodd 0%
  • Gravel 0%
  • Undecided 6%

510 previous TX Dem Primary voters polled 12/11. MoE 4.3%

 
TX GOP 11/15 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Friday, 16 November 2007 08:42
The two main trends cross this month as Thompson drops three and Huckabee rises two to tie at 16% for second place. Romney also drops a couple of points and McCain regains three, while Giuliani maintains a clear lead despite dropping a point to 23%. Tancredo drops four to 3%, though the previous sample may have been at the upper limit of the margin of error. Technically, all candidate movement is within the 4.3% margin of error of last month.

Gender gaps are most apparent with Thompson and Romney, with Thompson polling twice as well among men and Romney polling twice as well among women. Both candidates drops this month are completely due to their weaker gender. Thompson actually did slightly better among men this month, but his weakness among women voters fell back to earlier levels.

By age group, the field is wide open among voters under 40, with five candidates (including Ron Paul) statistically tied for the lead. Voters in ther 40s and 50s concentrated their support among the top four candidates in the same order as the complete sample. Seniors had Huckabee trailing but statistically tied with Giuliani, with Thompson well back and Romney tied with McCain for fourth. They were also much more likely to be undecided.

I also polled these voters on the same issue questions mentioned in this week's Texas Democratic primary poll. A third poll was done on general election voters who don't generally vote in primaries, The general election group was asked if they had a favorite among all candidates running as well as the issue questions. I am currently chewing through this data and plan to post a comprehensive analysis of how these populations differ and how the general election voters are looking at the election. That should be up next Monday (the 26th), so check back if you are into that sort of thing.

  • Giuliani 23% (24%)
  • Huckabee 16% (14%)
  • Thompson 16% (19%)
  • Romney 12% (14%)
  • McCain 9% (6%)
  • Paul 5% (6%)
  • Tancredo 3% (7%)
  • Hunter 3% (4%)
  • Keyes 1% (0%)
  • Undecided 11% (6%)

Last month in parentheses.

500 previous TX GOP Primary voters polled 11/15/2007. Margin of Error 4.4%

Last Updated on Wednesday, 21 November 2007 13:47
 
Primary vs General Comparison PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Friday, 23 November 2007 12:03
My usual technique for the Texas presidential primary polls is to compose my sample of voters with a history of voting in primaries, and then limiting the responses to those who say they will vote in the party's primary that they have previously voted in. It's a tight screen to reflect low turnout. The general election will see five times the number of voters as both primaries combined.

As we get to the point that more voters are tuning in, I decided to do a comparison poll of the population that does not vote in primaries, but does vote in the general elction. In the last presidential election, 7.4 million Texans voted, compared to about 840 thousand in the Democratic primary and 690 thousand in the GOP primary. One might expect the GOP to have a larger primary turnout than the Democrats since they have dominated recent general elections, but that's not the case. Only 15% of Bush voters had voted in the primary while 30% of Kerry voters had. This means that this non-primary voting population is tilted heavily in favor of Bush voters since they are a larger percentage of a larger number. Sixty-five percent of this population voted for Bush and only thirty-five percent voted for Kerry.

The line of questioning was slightly different than the primary polls. Rather than ask which party and then listing that party's candidates, I asked if the respondent had a favorite candidate, then which party that candidate belonged to and finally listed that party's candidates. I did this to focus on candidate appeal rather than party allegiance. After the candidate questions, I asked the same issue questions that were in the primary polls. General election voters, being less interested in politics, were less likely to take the poll, so I only got 375 responses, despite making 50% more calls than I usually do for the primary polls. Margin of error is larger, especially after splitting the sample three ways into both parties and 'no favorite'.

Of the respondents with a favorite, the Democrats did better than the 2004 number would indicate. Rather than a 65/35% split, Republicans only led 55/45%. It's likely that the fluctuating GOP race caused a few GOP voters to be undecided rather than picking a favorite, so that may skew the numbers a bit. However, when the numbers are broken down by gender, a clear split is observed. Men vote Republican 60/40%, not far from expected, but women vote almost exactly 50/50%. There has been speculation that Clinton may be attracting Republican women, but I can't confirm that from this data. Clinton received 33% of all women's support while the GOP frontrunner Giuliani received only 16%, followed by Obama at 12% and Romney at 10%. Among men, Giuliani received 23% to Clinton's 19%, Obama's 12% and Romney's 11%. It shound be noted that both Clinton and Giuliani do better among women within their respective party primary voters. Thompson and Huckabee trail McCain among both sexes.

Ron Paul supporters have suggested that he is attracting Democratic crossover voters, but there is no evidence in these results. He received 3% of the total vote. Among only those who picked a GOP candidate as their favorite, his percentage is almost identical to his support among GOP primary voters.

The Issues

I asked a series of issue questions, first asking respondents to rate six issues on a scale of 1-9 on how important it was for the next president to address, followed a question on Iraq troop levels. For the Democratic primary poll I had included some initial analysis using averages, but the distribution of ratings is not really well suited to averages. In that poll. Barack Obama supporters were the most likely to support a troop increase, but they were also the most likely to support quick withdrawal. An average value loses this information. Instead, I've put together a series of bubble graphs that graphically represent the percentages of each rating. I've combined the data from different polls into a single graph to compare the ratings of each party's primary voters with the ratings of general election voters by party preference as well as undecided. As noted above, the undecided voters are heavily weighted with past Bush voters. A second series of graphs compares the ratings for the supporters of the first and second place candidates for each party. Since the Republicans have a tie for second, there are total of five candidates. This series includes candidate supporters from both the primary and general election polls, though most are primary voters.

Many graphs after the break - dialup beware!

Last Updated on Friday, 23 November 2007 12:40
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TX Dems 11/8 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Tuesday, 13 November 2007 11:21
On November 7-8, I polled 510 Texans with history of voting in Democratic primaries on their preference for presidential nominee. While attention to the recent debate has trimmed Clinton's lead in some early state polls, that is not the case in Texas, where she received her highest percentage in the BurntOrangeReport.com series. Edwards received his lowest percentage so far, Richardson received his highest so far and Obama received his lowest since June, though these candidates' numbers have generally stayed within the margin of error. Clinton scored especially well among Latinos, who gave her 65%, followed by Richardson at 16%. Clinton's support among Latino men raised her overall male support to 50%.

  • Clinton 51%
  • Obama 17%
  • Edwards 11%
  • Richardson 10%
  • Kucinich 2%
  • Biden 1%
  • Dodd 0%
  • Gravel 0%
  • Undecided 8%

I also asked some issue questions, which are detailed in 'Read more'


Last Updated on Thursday, 15 November 2007 09:58
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