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Burnt Orange Report tracking poll PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Sunday, 25 March 2007 21:55

The Burnt Orange Report has asked IVR Polls to do a monthly tracking poll on the Democratic presidential primary race for Texas. For the time being, these polls will assume the primary will not move to February. As such, we will poll past primary voters. We'll change the model if the primary move to February becomes more certain. While this poll listed all eight candidates, future tracking polls will only list the top four, then 'Other.' Lengthy questions increase the hangup rate, introducing bias. A followup question about second choices had an obvious hangup pattern, so we are not reporting those results. Maybe next time with the shorter list.

Timing on the poll was interesting for two reasons. First, it was done the day of Elizabeth Edwards' news. Second, it was done the day before the American Research Group released their poll on the race. In the first case, the attention may have given John Edward's numbers a boost. He was up four points from my poll last month, while both Clinton and Obama were down.

The second case gives an excellent opportunity to compare poll results from different methodologies. I'll get into those details after the jump.

 

Last Updated on Thursday, 20 December 2007 07:58
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Casinos in Texas PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Thursday, 08 March 2007 21:48

With Rodney Ellis and John Carona filing legislation to bring casinos to the Lone Star state, I thought I would poll voters to see how they felt about the subject. First, I asked likely voters what they thought about bringing casinos to Texas. Then I asked a followup question based on their initial response.

If they were in favor, I listed some of the opponents' arguments. If they were opposed, I listed some of the supporters' arguments. If they were undecided, I listed both the pro and con arguments. Then I asked if any opinions had changed. Only a couple of percent switched sides completely, but there was a strong shift to 'Undecided.' It would appear that a heavy PR campaign could shift this either way.

Questions and details after the jump.

Last Updated on Thursday, 20 December 2007 07:58
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Effect of moving the primary to February PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Friday, 23 February 2007 07:14

Very few people vote in the primaries, presidential year or not. In Texas, the choice of presidential candidate is effectively over by the time we vote, so there is no bump in those cycles.

 This year, there are some rumblings from both sides about moving the primary to February 5th. If it happens, primary turnout would probably jump. The new primary voters would have a different profile from the current hardcore activists, possibly changing the outcome. With that in mind, I designed a poll to run against the different statistical populations.

More after the flip.

Last Updated on Thursday, 20 December 2007 07:59
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