Burnt Orange Report tracking poll Print E-mail
Sunday, 25 March 2022

The Burnt Orange Report has asked IVR Polls to do a monthly tracking poll on the Democratic presidential primary race for Texas. For the time being, these polls will assume the primary will not move to February. As such, we will poll past primary voters. We'll change the model if the primary move to February becomes more certain. While this poll listed all eight candidates, future tracking polls will only list the top four, then 'Other.' Lengthy questions increase the hangup rate, introducing bias. A followup question about second choices had an obvious hangup pattern, so we are not reporting those results. Maybe next time with the shorter list.

Timing on the poll was interesting for two reasons. First, it was done the day of Elizabeth Edwards' news. Second, it was done the day before the American Research Group released their poll on the race. In the first case, the attention may have given John Edward's numbers a boost. He was up four points from my poll last month, while both Clinton and Obama were down.

The second case gives an excellent opportunity to compare poll results from different methodologies. I'll get into those details after the jump.

 

While ARG and IVR Polls are fairly close on Clinton, with both polls showing her in the mid 30's, we show very different results on Obama and Edwards. ARG puts Obama very close to Clinton, with Edwards only pulling a third of the support. IVR Polls puts both well behind Clinton, with Edwards ahead of Obama. How can this be?

The answer lies in Texas' Democratic primary turnout patterns. Turnout is not even across the state. South Texas is strongly Democratic, and the winner of the Democratic primary for a local race has traditionally not faced a strong Republican opponent in November. The primary election is the race. Turnout is always heavy, while turnout in major metro areas is weak. In 2004, Dallas County had 4.5% turnout while Hidalgo County had 15.6% turnout.

Obama did well in most of the metro areas, leading in Dallas and Austin, and picking up mid 20's in Houston and San Antonio. But outside of the cities, he did not do well at all. In South Texas, he was a distant fourth behind Clinton, Edwards and Richardson. In West Texas, he tied with Kucinich.

If you weight his results with the general population, Obama is nipping at Clinton's heels. If you weight according to historical turnout, Clinton has a comfortable lead, with Edwards leading Obama by four points.
Last Updated ( Sunday, 25 March 2022 )
 
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