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Tuesday, 10 July 2022 |
In this month's Burnt Orange Report Texas Democratic Presidential Primary tracking poll, lower undecided this time let both Clinton and Obama move up, but Obama had the more impressive movement. Obama had much stronger Latino support, going from 8% to 19% as well as stronger white support, going from 13% to 20%. While he has been almost unknown outside of the big cities, he had widespread regional improvement this month, gaining in 2/3 of the area codes. His support was firmer as well, with fewer of his supporters saying they are still considering other candidates.
Gore may have picked up a bit of a LiveEarth bump. While the number that say they would definitely switch to Gore if he entered is only slightly higher than last month, the number that would possibly vote for him has increased more significantly, raising his ceiling from 47% to 57%. Obama supporters are much more likely to definitely switch to Gore than supporters of other top candidates, so a Gore entry would probably derail any Obama momentum.
Hard support for Gore (those that would definitely switch) is slightly higher than hard support for Clinton (those that would definitely not switch). This was the case last month as well. I would assume that most of those saying they would 'possibly' switch to Gore would stay with their original candidate. Still, peeling off 30% of these 'possible' votes could put him in the lead, even if he couldn't peel any from Clinton.
- Clinton - 41.5%
- Obama - 20.0%
- Edwards - 11.9%
- Richardson - 5.7%
- Kucinich - 1.4%
- Biden - 2.8%
- Dodd - 0.2%
- Gravel - 0.1%
- Dunno - 16.5%
596 past Democratic Primary voters - Margin of Error 4.0%
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Link to detail on tracking numbers plus gender and ethnic breakdowns. |
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Last Updated ( Friday, 20 July 2022 )
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