Florida 7/16 Print E-mail
Tuesday, 17 July 2022

I polled Florida again, with two samples, one drawn from registered Democrats who have history of voting in general elections and one drawn from registered Democrats who have history of voting in Demogratic primaries. I will refer to 'primary and general' voters below, but all are registered Democrats whose voting history shows them to be likely voters in 2008.

Clinton is still far ahead, but Obama has made gains over the last month. The most notable shift was among African American primary voters. Last month, African American general voters went three to one for Obama over Clinton, while African American primary voters went three to one for Clinton over Obama. This month, both groups went strongly for Obama. This shift, along with a smaller shift among white primary voters now has Clinton doing better among general voters than among primary voters, a reversal of last month's results.

Last month, about 70% of both Clinton and Obama supporters said they were definitely going to vote for their choice. This month, Clinton leads 80% to 63%, but that can be explained by some soft support leaving Clinton for Obama. Among the general voter cohort, it is viewed as a two candidate race. Clinton and Obama split 71% of the support with Edwards just under 10% and the no other candidate receiving 3%. The primary voters are more divided, with Clinton and Obama splitting only 61%, Edwards at 13% and Biden ticking up at 6%. Edwards was ahead of Obama among white voters, with particular strength among white females. Biden's support was mainly among white males.

Gore support was basically unchanged, with 19% saying they would definitely switch if he entered, and another 36% saying they would possibly switch. Last month was 20% and 34% respectively

Age-wise, voters under 30 were evenly split between Clinton and Obama. Obama has a strong lead in the 30-49 demographic while Clinton has a strong lead from 50 and up.  Primary voters over 50 give Edwards his highest support.

The Panhandle gave Obama his only regional lead, with Edwards tied with Clinton for second. Other areas were mostly similar to the statewide numbers, though Edwards had small pockets where he led Obama.

In general, I do see a fundraising bounce for Obama. This poll gives him a six point bump over my last FL poll. My TX poll released last week gave him a five point bump. PPP gives him a four point bump in NC over their June poll. Quinnipiac, OH, no Gore, gives him five over the June version. ARG's FL poll released yesterday gave him eight points over their last one, though that was eight weeks ago.The only other July state poll listed here with a June poll from the same pollster without a bump is SUSA's Cal poll that was primarily conducted at the end of June. Quinnipiac's PA poll at the end of June was also showing an Obama bump, so it is possible that movement predates the fundraising buzz.

Results (previous results)
All candidates names were listed, only showing results >3%
Clinton - 42% (45%)
Obama - 24% (18%)
Edwards - 12% (14%)
Undecided - 13% (11%)

571 polled (total) - 4.1 MoE

Last Updated ( Tuesday, 17 July 2022 )
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