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TX Senate Democratic Primary |
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Wednesday, 05 September 2022 |
I ran a question on the Senate primary along with another poll of past Texas Democratic Primary voters. Mikal Watts and Rick Noriega are the two candidates. I included Emil Reichstadt, but he dropped out a couple of days later to run for a different office. As far as I know, he had no knowledge of these results.
This race gets a lot of attention on the blogs, but is generally off the radar for most voters. In the three-way race, 52% were undecided. Men were more likely to state an opinion, with 'only' 44% undecided compared to 56% of women. Noriega was the clear leader among those who had a preference, with 27% to Watts' 14% and Reichstadt's 6%. The Houston area was strong for Noriega with about 50% of the vote despite 38% undecided. The Corpus Christi area had similar numbers, but with Watts in the lead. San Antonio and DFW were about 2/3 undecided, with Watts and Noriega about even. Austin was also 2/3 undecided, but with a 7-1 lead for Noriega. El Paso was close to the state average, while the LRGV gave Noriega a 40% to 23% lead with 34% undecided.
Excluding undecided and breaking the results into subsets by combination of gender and ethnicity, and then comparing Noriega's percentage to Watts' percentage, Noriega led in every category. His strongest showing was among Latino women, who gave him 2.9 'votes' for every one of Watts'. The closest subset was white women, who gave Noriega 1.2 times as many 'votes.' This was also the subset with the highest undecided - 58%. The lowest undecided was among Latino men, with 39%, who gave Noriega his second smallest lead with 1.6x. Many of these slices contain very small samples, so take them with a grain of salt.
8/29-30, 489 polled, 4.5% MoE
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Last Updated ( Wednesday, 05 September 2022 )
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