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Fred Thompson's support is fading among previous Texas Republican primary voters. Back in June, long before he officially entered the race, Thompson led the race with 29%. At the end of August, he had slipped slightly to 25% and by mid-October, he has fallen to 19%, behind Rudy Giuliani, who added three points to 24%. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee tied for third at 14% each, followed by Tom Tancredo at 7%, John McCain and Ron Paul at 6% and straw poll winner Duncan Hunter at 4%. Alan Keyes received no votes. Sam Brownback was not listed, as news reports indicate he will drop out today. Undecided was down to 6%.
- Giuliani - 24%
- Thompson - 19%
- Huckabee - 14%
- Romney - 14%
- Tancredo - 7%
- McCain - 6%
- Paul - 6%
- Hunter - 4%
- Keyes - 0%
- Undecided 6%
532 previous TX GOP Primary voters, polled 10/18/2007 - Margin of error 4.3%
Click 'Read More' for detail and Hutchison question
Earlier polls have shown significant gender gaps, with Thompson, Huckabee and Paul having much higher support among men. Giuliani had much higher support among women, and women were more likely to be undecided. Most of these gaps are still in place, but are less pronounced. The one change is that Huckabee now scores slightly higher with women.
Among age bracket, Thompson and Romney lead the under-40 cohort at 23%, followed by Huckabee and Romney at 14%. Republicans from 40-59 preferred Thompson and Giuliani at 21%, followed by Huckabee at 16% and Romney at 14%. Among Republicans 60 and older, Giuliani was well ahead at 32%, followed by Thompson at 15%, Huckabee at 14% and Romney at 11%. No other candidate broke 10% in any age bracket.
In an interview with Texas Monthly, Kay Bailey Hutchison indicated she might resign the Senate seat she won last year to run for governor in 2010. While the plans for both Hutchison and Rick Perry are unlear at this point, I wanted to get an idea of how one scenario might play out by asking the following question:
Kay Bailey Hutchison has indicated she might resign her Senate seat to run for Governor in 2010. Would you rather have Hutchison, Rick Perry or someone else for Governor next term?
Support for Hutchison was 55% to Perry's 18%, with 20% for 'someone else' and 7% undecided. There was no gender gap, as Hutchison and Perry received almost identical percentages from men and women. My poll on 8/31 found 63% approval ratings for Rick Perry, so it would appear that this is not anti-Perry sentiment so much as pro-Hutchison.
Among the other choices, men were more likely to choose 'someone else' and women were more likely to be undecided. Cross referenced with the presidential choice, Hutchison won every group vs Perry. At the high end, 79% of McCain supporters went with Hutchison, while only 28% of Tancredo supporters did. Tancredo supporters were the only group to support 'someone else' rather than the two named candidates, giving 'the candidate to be named later' 48%. Huckabee, Thompson and Paul voters also chose 'someone else' over Perry. |
