Florida 7/16
Tuesday, 17 July 2022

I polled Florida again, with two samples, one drawn from registered Democrats who have history of voting in general elections and one drawn from registered Democrats who have history of voting in Demogratic primaries. I will refer to 'primary and general' voters below, but all are registered Democrats whose voting history shows them to be likely voters in 2008.

Clinton is still far ahead, but Obama has made gains over the last month. The most notable shift was among African American primary voters. Last month, African American general voters went three to one for Obama over Clinton, while African American primary voters went three to one for Clinton over Obama. This month, both groups went strongly for Obama. This shift, along with a smaller shift among white primary voters now has Clinton doing better among general voters than among primary voters, a reversal of last month's results.

Last Updated ( Tuesday, 17 July 2022 )
Texas 7/9
Tuesday, 10 July 2022
In this month's Burnt Orange Report Texas Democratic Presidential Primary tracking poll, lower undecided this time let both Clinton and Obama move up, but Obama had the more impressive movement. Obama had much stronger Latino support, going from 8% to 19% as well as stronger white support, going from 13% to 20%. While he has been almost unknown outside of the big cities, he had widespread regional improvement this month, gaining in 2/3 of the area codes. His support was firmer as well, with fewer of his supporters saying they are still considering other candidates.

Gore may have picked up a bit of a LiveEarth bump. While the number that say they would definitely switch to Gore if he entered is only slightly higher than last month, the number that would possibly vote for him has increased more significantly, raising his ceiling from 47% to 57%. Obama supporters are much more likely to definitely switch to Gore than supporters of other top candidates, so a Gore entry would probably derail any Obama momentum.

Hard support for Gore (those that would definitely switch) is slightly higher than hard support for Clinton (those that would definitely not switch). This was the case last month as well. I would assume that most of those saying they would 'possibly' switch to Gore would stay with their original candidate. Still, peeling off 30% of these 'possible' votes could put him in the lead, even if he couldn't peel any from Clinton.
Last Updated ( Friday, 20 July 2022 )
Texas GOP - 6/19
Wednesday, 20 June 2022
I polled past Republican primary voters in Texas on their preferences among the announced presidential candidates. They're not sure. While only 16% said they were undecided, 70% said they were still considering other candidates. When asked about Fred Thompson entering the race, enough said they would switch and support his candidacy to move him into the lead, but only a third of those that were still considering others said they would definitely support Thompson.
Last Updated ( Tuesday, 17 July 2022 )
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