TX Dems 11/8
Tuesday, 13 November 2022
On November 7-8, I polled 510 Texans with history of voting in Democratic primaries on their preference for presidential nominee. While attention to the recent debate has trimmed Clinton's lead in some early state polls, that is not the case in Texas, where she received her highest percentage in the BurntOrangeReport.com series. Edwards received his lowest percentage so far, Richardson received his highest so far and Obama received his lowest since June, though these candidates' numbers have generally stayed within the margin of error. Clinton scored especially well among Latinos, who gave her 65%, followed by Richardson at 16%. Clinton's support among Latino men raised her overall male support to 50%.

  • Clinton 51%
  • Obama 17%
  • Edwards 11%
  • Richardson 10%
  • Kucinich 2%
  • Biden 1%
  • Dodd 0%
  • Gravel 0%
  • Undecided 8%

I also asked some issue questions, which are detailed in 'Read more'

Last Updated ( Thursday, 15 November 2022 )
TX GOP 10/18
Friday, 19 October 2022
Fred Thompson's support is fading among previous Texas Republican primary voters. Back in June, long before he officially entered the race, Thompson led the race with 29%. At the end of August, he had slipped slightly to 25% and by mid-October, he has fallen to 19%, behind Rudy Giuliani, who added three points to 24%. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee tied for third at 14% each, followed by Tom Tancredo at 7%, John McCain and Ron Paul at 6% and straw poll winner Duncan Hunter at 4%. Alan Keyes received no votes. Sam Brownback was not listed, as news reports indicate he will drop out today. Undecided was down to 6%.

  • Giuliani - 24%
  • Thompson - 19%
  • Huckabee - 14%
  • Romney - 14%
  • Tancredo - 7%
  • McCain - 6%
  • Paul - 6%
  • Hunter - 4%
  • Keyes - 0%
  • Undecided 6%

532 previous TX GOP Primary voters, polled 10/18/2007 - Margin of error 4.3%

Click 'Read More' for detail and Hutchison question

Last Updated ( Friday, 19 October 2022 )
TX Senate Democratic Primary
Wednesday, 05 September 2022
I ran a question on the Senate primary along with another poll of past Texas Democratic Primary voters. Mikal Watts and Rick Noriega are the two candidates. I included Emil Reichstadt, but he dropped out a couple of days later to run for a different office. As far as I know, he had no knowledge of these results.

This race gets a lot of attention on the blogs, but is generally off the radar for most voters. In the three-way race, 52% were undecided. Men were more likely to state an opinion, with 'only' 44% undecided compared to 56% of women. Noriega was the clear leader among those who had a preference, with 27% to Watts' 14% and Reichstadt's 6%. The Houston area was strong for Noriega with about 50% of the vote despite 38% undecided. The Corpus Christi area had similar numbers, but with Watts in the lead. San Antonio and DFW were about 2/3 undecided, with Watts and Noriega about even. Austin was also 2/3 undecided, but with a 7-1 lead for Noriega. El Paso was close to the state average, while the LRGV gave Noriega a 40% to 23% lead with 34% undecided.

Excluding undecided and breaking the results into subsets by combination of gender and ethnicity, and then comparing Noriega's percentage to Watts' percentage, Noriega led in every category. His strongest showing was among Latino women, who gave him 2.9 'votes' for every one of Watts'. The closest subset was white women, who gave Noriega 1.2 times as many 'votes.' This was also the subset with the highest undecided - 58%. The lowest undecided was among Latino men, with 39%, who gave Noriega his second smallest lead with 1.6x. Many of these slices contain very small samples, so take them with a grain of salt.

8/29-30, 489 polled, 4.5% MoE
Last Updated ( Wednesday, 05 September 2022 )
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